OPINION: Barnier has a plan for France, but it depends on Marine Le Pen

It is fair to say that, whatever Michel Barnier may be, he is not a great orator – writes John Lichfield. His inaugural address to the National Assembly as Prime Minister on Tuesday afternoon was like a wedding speech delivered by the bride’s granddad, standing in for her absentee father.

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It was plodding and cautious but crafty and effective. The only rhetorical flourishes were quotations from other politicians, including several from his great hero Charles de Gaulle, who died half a century ago.
There was one reasonable joke – a dad joke or granddad joke. “I know that some of you have red-lines and some of them are very red indeed,” Barnier said.
This was his only reference to the antics of the hard-left La France Insoumise, who disgraced themselves by barracking throughout (although they seemed to get bored with themselves before they grew bored with 90 minutes of Barnier).
There was a torrent of words from all sides on Tuesday. Many can be ignored.
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Barnier will be Prime Minister for a maximum of two and a half years and perhaps a much shorter time. He has no majority in the assembly. Judging by the responses of his coalition party leaders to Tuesday’s speech, he barely has a minority.
Immigration, debt and compromise: The priorities for Barnier’s new government
Many of the things he listed as priorities for his government – such as examining the possibility of proportional representation for parliamentary elections – will not get very far. There may be a majority in this assembly for the principle of PR but not for a detailed project.
All the same, several things that were said were important. Most were said by Barnier. There was also an intriguing remark by Marine Le Pen.
First, Barnier managed to out-Macron President Emmanuel Macron. He maintained the broad lines of Macronist economic policy while “at the same time” (Macron’s favourite phrase) abandoning Macron’s aversion to tax rises for big business and the rich.

He promised to make France more competitive but “at the same time” brought forward a 2 percent increase in the minimum wage (SMIC) from January to November.
He endorsed Macron’s vital pension reform but “at the same time” he promised to tinker with the harsh reality (for some people) of retirement at 64.
He promised to be tougher on immigration and crime while “at the same time” repudiating the silly comments of Bruno Retailleau, his hard-right interior minister, who had suggested that laws protecting asylum seekers could be ignored. Illegal immigration must be challenged, Barnier said, but the rule of law was paramount.
If Barnier was the grandfather giving the wedding speech, the “absent father” was Macron. The biggest and possibly the only real job demanded of this strange government is to prevent France from stumbling into a deep budgetary crisis next year.
Macron has many more achievements than he is given credit for but he also has one gaping failure. The €1,000 billion increase in France’s accumulated debt since 2017 is partly explained by the let-it-rip public spending on the Covid pandemic and to soften inflation after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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But Macron never took excessive French public spending very seriously. He cut taxes without reducing spending and expected growth to reduce the annual deficit.
The French deficit now threatens to go well beyond 6 percent of GDP this year (instead of the 4.4 percent promised). Accumulated French debt has topped €3.2 trillion or 112 percent of GDP; France is now paying higher interest rates on its debt than Spain or Greece. Almost as much will be spent on debt payments this year – €51 billion – as on education.
The details of what Barnier plans to ease the deficit will be published next week. On Tuesday, he revealed only the outline. The deficit will be cut to 5 percent of GDP next year (instead of the promised 4.4 percent). The deadline for respecting the EU ceiling of 3 percent of GDP will be delayed (yet again) to 2029 instead of 2027.
To reach these targets, Barnier plans something like €18 billion in spending cuts next year and €9 billion in new taxes on big business and the rich.
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The Macron camp protested that tax increases would slow the French economy and threaten to reverse the reduction in unemployment which is one of the greatest achievements of the Macron years.
But so would an even more draconian cut in state spending. Barnier – as he complained on Tuesday – has been left with no good choices. By choosing to abandon the Macron orthodoxy of “no new taxes” he has proved that he is his own man.
He has invented a new version of “on the other hand” politics, which is more left-leaning than Macron in some respects and more right-leaning in others. Accusations that this is a “hard right” government are false. Barnier has shown himself to be less “liberal” in economic terms than Macron and more “liberal” in social terms than many in his own centre-right camp.
But can it work? Can Barnier even survive with only circa 213 deputies reluctantly in his favour out of 577?
Everything depends on the mood and strategy of Marine Le Pen who controls the 143 de facto swing votes in the Assembly.
Her comments were vague enough to allow several changes of mind but it seems that she has decided to allow Barnier time to address the budget crisis at least. In an otherwise shallow speech she paid tribute to his “sense of courtesy and innate respect”.
She said that he had only a “minuscule” chance of success but she was prepared, for now, to give him that chance. In other words, her Far Right troops will not vote for the censure motion against Barnier which will be tabled by the left-wing New Popular Front alliance early next week.
Other censure motions will be available. Will Le Pen vote for the Barnier budget from late October? No. Will she order her troops to abstain to allow the budget to pass? Maybe.
Do you agree? Share your views on Barnier’s speech, and what is likely to happen next for the French government, in the comments section below

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Michael

2024/10/03 00:03

“Accumulated French debt has topped €3.2 trillion or 112 percent of GDP;”
Current GDP is $3.13tn nominal. Hence the debt is 102% of GDP. By PPP the GDP increases to €3.988tn and debt reduces to 80.2%.

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It was plodding and cautious but crafty and effective. The only rhetorical flourishes were quotations from other politicians, including several from his great hero Charles de Gaulle, who died half a century ago.
There was one reasonable joke – a dad joke or granddad joke. “I know that some of you have red-lines and some of them are very red indeed,” Barnier said.
This was his only reference to the antics of the hard-left La France Insoumise, who disgraced themselves by barracking throughout (although they seemed to get bored with themselves before they grew bored with 90 minutes of Barnier).
There was a torrent of words from all sides on Tuesday. Many can be ignored.
Barnier will be Prime Minister for a maximum of two and a half years and perhaps a much shorter time. He has no majority in the assembly. Judging by the responses of his coalition party leaders to Tuesday’s speech, he barely has a minority.
Immigration, debt and compromise: The priorities for Barnier’s new government
Many of the things he listed as priorities for his government – such as examining the possibility of proportional representation for parliamentary elections – will not get very far. There may be a majority in this assembly for the principle of PR but not for a detailed project.
All the same, several things that were said were important. Most were said by Barnier. There was also an intriguing remark by Marine Le Pen.
First, Barnier managed to out-Macron President Emmanuel Macron. He maintained the broad lines of Macronist economic policy while “at the same time” (Macron’s favourite phrase) abandoning Macron’s aversion to tax rises for big business and the rich.
He promised to make France more competitive but “at the same time” brought forward a 2 percent increase in the minimum wage (SMIC) from January to November.
He endorsed Macron’s vital pension reform but “at the same time” he promised to tinker with the harsh reality (for some people) of retirement at 64.
He promised to be tougher on immigration and crime while “at the same time” repudiating the silly comments of Bruno Retailleau, his hard-right interior minister, who had suggested that laws protecting asylum seekers could be ignored. Illegal immigration must be challenged, Barnier said, but the rule of law was paramount.
If Barnier was the grandfather giving the wedding speech, the “absent father” was Macron. The biggest and possibly the only real job demanded of this strange government is to prevent France from stumbling into a deep budgetary crisis next year.
Macron has many more achievements than he is given credit for but he also has one gaping failure. The €1,000 billion increase in France’s accumulated debt since 2017 is partly explained by the let-it-rip public spending on the Covid pandemic and to soften inflation after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
But Macron never took excessive French public spending very seriously. He cut taxes without reducing spending and expected growth to reduce the annual deficit.
The French deficit now threatens to go well beyond 6 percent of GDP this year (instead of the 4.4 percent promised). Accumulated French debt has topped €3.2 trillion or 112 percent of GDP; France is now paying higher interest rates on its debt than Spain or Greece. Almost as much will be spent on debt payments this year – €51 billion – as on education.
The details of what Barnier plans to ease the deficit will be published next week. On Tuesday, he revealed only the outline. The deficit will be cut to 5 percent of GDP next year (instead of the promised 4.4 percent). The deadline for respecting the EU ceiling of 3 percent of GDP will be delayed (yet again) to 2029 instead of 2027.
To reach these targets, Barnier plans something like €18 billion in spending cuts next year and €9 billion in new taxes on big business and the rich.
The Macron camp protested that tax increases would slow the French economy and threaten to reverse the reduction in unemployment which is one of the greatest achievements of the Macron years.
But so would an even more draconian cut in state spending. Barnier – as he complained on Tuesday – has been left with no good choices. By choosing to abandon the Macron orthodoxy of “no new taxes” he has proved that he is his own man.
He has invented a new version of “on the other hand” politics, which is more left-leaning than Macron in some respects and more right-leaning in others. Accusations that this is a “hard right” government are false. Barnier has shown himself to be less “liberal” in economic terms than Macron and more “liberal” in social terms than many in his own centre-right camp.
But can it work? Can Barnier even survive with only circa 213 deputies reluctantly in his favour out of 577?
Everything depends on the mood and strategy of Marine Le Pen who controls the 143 de facto swing votes in the Assembly.
Her comments were vague enough to allow several changes of mind but it seems that she has decided to allow Barnier time to address the budget crisis at least. In an otherwise shallow speech she paid tribute to his “sense of courtesy and innate respect”.
She said that he had only a “minuscule” chance of success but she was prepared, for now, to give him that chance. In other words, her Far Right troops will not vote for the censure motion against Barnier which will be tabled by the left-wing New Popular Front alliance early next week.
Other censure motions will be available. Will Le Pen vote for the Barnier budget from late October? No. Will she order her troops to abstain to allow the budget to pass? Maybe.
Do you agree? Share your views on Barnier’s speech, and what is likely to happen next for the French government, in the comments section below